What actually moves a baseball game
You don't need to know every stat in baseball to understand what moves a prediction. Almost all of it comes down to four things, and this lesson explains each one in plain language.
The ballpark changes the game
Not all fields are equal. Coors Field in Colorado is famous for high scores because the air is thin; other parks are pitcher-friendly. VEKTORIUM gives each park a 'run factor' — a park that boosts scoring makes the over more likely and makes both teams' run totals higher.
Left-handed vs right-handed matchups
In baseball, left-handed hitters usually hit right-handed pitchers better, and the reverse is also true. When a righty-heavy lineup faces a left-handed starter, the matchup matters more than the raw season stats suggest. This is why the same two teams can have very different predictions on different days, depending on who's pitching and who's in the lineup.
A tired bullpen gives up runs
Starting pitchers don't finish games — relievers (the bullpen) pitch the late innings. If the bullpen pitched a lot over the previous few days, those relievers are tired and more likely to give up runs late. A tired bullpen raises the total and makes late leads less safe.
Recent form and fatigue
Teams and players get hot and cold, and travel or day-night games add fatigue. VEKTORIUM folds recent rest and form into the prediction so a well-rested team isn't treated the same as one playing its third game in three cities.