When to bet: timing is part of the edge
The price of tonight's game changes all day. Betting at the right moment is worth real money, and it's one of the easiest habits to build.
Morning prices vs closing prices
Early in the day, lines are set from projections and can lag behind sharp information. By game time, the market has processed everything and the line is sharpest. If your edge comes from your own analysis, an early price that's better than fair is often the best moment to act.
News changes the game
Lineups, a scratched starter or rain can swing a line in minutes — a starter change can move a total by a run. Betting before important news means risking that the news moves against you; waiting means the best price is usually gone.
A simple timing rule
Compare the current price to your fair price (lesson 7). If the market price is better than fair and you're confident, act — don't wait for a slightly better number. If it's worse than fair, wait or pass. Timing isn't about catching the absolute best price; it's about not missing a price that beats your fair price.